1. Bonus Depreciation
The One Big Beautiful Bill makes permanent the 100% bonus depreciation provision that was set to phase down to just 20% next year under the TCJA (Tax Cut and Jobs Act). An investor buying a $500,000 home at a high tax rate might have saved $15,750 on state and federal taxes next year. But that same investor will now save $78,750! This will bid up the multifamily, SFR rental, and STR markets, and simultaneously put pressure on our owner-occupied and second home inventory.
2. Interest Rates
The labor market is deteriorating, giving the Fed the room they need to lower interest rates this month and continue with a downward course for the foreseeable future. Remember, mortgage rates lead market expectations of Fed policy. As of today we’re at THE LOWEST MORTGAGE RATES SEEN SINCE SEPTEMBER 2024. But even that doesn’t explain it. A little more and they’ll be at THE LOWEST MORTGAGE RATES SINCE SEPTEMBER 2022. Think about that, we’re about to break the rate barrier we’ve been stuck at for 3 damn years.
3. Timing
And this leads me to my third point: Timing. We have three years of homeowners ready to refinance, and when they do they’ll lower their payments and pull funds for deferred projects and dreams. Many will skip refinancing and get into the house that fits their current situation, not their covid situation. The pent-up demand is real, and the golden handcuffs are loosening.
